Follow the Debate - China Real Estate June 2010
China Real Estate
The expansion of these gigantic cities has been fast, disruptive and unprecedented in world history. It has also been accompanied by rapid price increases. But they have occurred primarily in the first-tier cities. Markets cannot easily price what they have never witnessed before.
;)
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Asia Times Online 18/6/2010
China Daily 18/6/2010
Growing pains on road to urbanization
On the coast of Guangdong province, two hours northeast of Shenzhen, is a city with a population of about 3.5 million, 500,000 more people than Chicago, and an annual GDP growth rate of about 17 percent. Few people have heard of this city.
With wide, tree-lined streets, ramshackle factories and bustling alleys lined with stalls offering everything from fresh fruit to motorcycle repairs, Shanwei would be a major urban center in almost any other country.
Instead, in China, it is merely one of scores of cities overshadowed by sprawling metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
However, fast-growing but largely anonymous cities like Shanwei are increasingly driving the country's development.
Kaixin - For all his faults, this was what Mao was trying to move China away from. China certainly has come a long way since 1949 and 1979 in paricular. However, it should question its values on issues such as this.
China Daily 17/6/2010
Kaixin – That is exactly what Kaixin has been saying all along. A cursory glance at real estate lending in China clearly demonstrates the stark difference with the sub-prime fiasco in America, where Wall Street turned the once solid investment of real estate into tulips.
In China many people still pay cash for property. No, that is not an error, they actually pay cash. A substantial deposit of cash is required to purchase a home, 30%. You have to clearly demonstrate the capacity to service the loan.
An investment loan requires a 40% deposit. In some cities you are not allowed to purchase a third property for investment.
The Sydney Morning Herald 16/6/2010
Chinese debt binge is fuelling a dangerous property bubble
MALCOLM TURNBULL
So were Chinese growth to slow, not only would mining tax revenues decline but, in a double whammy to the budget bottom line, if projects were to fail the Commonwealth would be called on to pick up its share of losses.
So how sound is the government's assumption that the China boom will continue for many years?
China Daily 16/6/2010
Shanghai among world's most expensive cities to live in
East China's metropolis of Shanghai has been listed as one of the 50 most expensive cities in the world to live in, according to the latest cost of living data from ECA International.
Shanghai dropped 18 places to 46th position in the 2010 global ranking, with Tokyo reclaiming the number-one position.
Beijing, China's capital, fell 29 spots to 55 in the ranking, followed by Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
China Daily 14/6/2010
The Wall Street Journal 11/6/2010
China's Property Sales Fell in May
Construction Continues to Grow, Suggesting That Steps to Cool Housing Market Haven't Taken Effect Yet
BEIJING -- China's property sales fell in May for the first time since December 2008, new official data show, but continued growth in construction suggests that government measures to cool the housing market have not yet seriously cut into the nation's economic expansion.
Caixin Online 10/6/2010
Mortgage Loans Hit 2.2 Trillion Yuan
The Wall Street Journal 9/6/2010
Caixin Online 9/6/2010
Developers Cut Prices, Edging Toward a Cliff
China Daily 9/6/2010
The Wall Street Journal China RealTime Report 8/6/2010
More Chinese Expect Housing Prices to Decline, Survey Shows
New evidence about how China’s housing market is digesting the government’s restrictive policies is continuing to roll in. Since mid-April, property transactions in major cities have dried up as buyers and sellers try to figure out where the market is headed, and what the next steps in government policy will be.
The Wall Street Journal 7/6/2010
DISSECTING CHINA'S HOUSING MARKET - An indepth feature
China's Property Market Freezes Up
Kaixin – The almost complete lack of understanding by Western ‘Experts’ of the economic, social and political forces driving China is startling. They only look at issues from the perspective of their own society and assume it is the same in China. It most certainly is not!
The Wall Street Journal 4/6/2010
China's Bid to Defuse Real-Estate Froth Cools Market
BEIJING—Government policy changes have thrown China's booming property market into a period of paralysis that some industry executives say will last for several months, weighing on global growth prospects already battered by the turmoil in Europe.
China Daily 3/6/2010
China Themes
Yuan Revaluation & Internationalisation
Graeme has been using ChinesePod since 2007
"I highly recommend ChinesePod, I haven't found any Online teaching programmes that come close."
Set in Zanzibar in 1910, it is the story of two people from different worlds falling in love. Susan immerses herself in Zanzibar. Asim falls in love with this woman from the nation that killed his wife. Susan is a spy. Asim is the chief advisor to the Sultan of Zanzibar. Germany and France are holding secret negotiations to form a Pan European alliance, which would isolate Britain and destroy her power. Susan and Asim are caught up in all this and their love is finally dashed on the cold, hard reality of international high politics.
Available on Amazon's Kindle $4.99 - Over 400 Pages
Chapter One
Zanzibar
'A maharaja’s ruby cast on a Persian carpet by the blackest of hands'
Their souls danced, honouring his promise.
The ancient dhow stirred in the soft morning breeze. Like a sleepy lion, it began to move through the water, snuffling about the other boats on the harbour; some scurrying, some at anchor, some darting before a brief gust of wind. The lateen sails a bustling panorama of blood-red and sun-bleached white.
Aft, the woman's eyes searched the skyline, drinking in the architecture of Stone Town, the heart of Zanzibar; its jagged, cluttered silhouette so familiar, so much a part of her soul.
Abruptly, her eyes ceased their restless searching, jagged by an invisible hook, transfixed by the grand buildings on the northern shore, Beit-al-Ajaib, the House of Wonders, Palace to the great Sultan of Zanzibar. The distinctive architecture captured in the tropical light: coconut white outlined by contrasting shadow plays of pepper black.
A smile, ever so slight, started to play on the edge of her mouth then disappeared. A memory that should have been fond instantly turned to sharp unbearable pain. Her eyes hardened and moved on.
Without warning the captain threw the rudder over. Stumbling, the woman barked her shin on a wooden box, a rough-hewn coffin. She recoiled, knocking over an untidy stack of cane baskets. Imprisoned in the baskets, rusty cockerels, their scruffy heads straining through the latticework, snapped at her, cried out to her; their raucous din overwhelming her, drowning her.
Dimly, through the fog of noise, the strident swearing of the sailors in Kiswahili seeped into her conscious. Understanding, she smiled mirthlessly.
The coffin had been carelessly stowed, a chore, rather than a labour of respect or love.
London 1910
“Hello, who are you? I am Oliver, is Edward at home?”
The words were spoken by a tall, impeccably dressed young man as he rushed into Edward’s flat shaking off surplus water and calling for whisky while shoving his umbrella into a stand. It was a blustery, grey, bitterly cold February afternoon in the heart of London. He brushed a curl of soft auburn hair from his forehead and smiled charmingly.
Susan laughed, her hazel eyes dancing with the exhilaration of the new. “Yes, he is having a bath. I think he is trying to get warm. I’m Susan, Susan Carey, his sister.”
“Ahhh yes, from Australia. How do you do?” said Sir Oliver, smiling broadly and offering his hand. He noticed the laughter in her eyes, and the depth, particularly the depth, intensified by jade flecks that made them striking and alluring. “So, you have arrived, good trip I trust.”
“I am very well thank you, and yes, it was a good trip,” replied Susan.
He laughed and glanced at the sitting room, “whisky?”
“Oh, I’m sorry, please come in…….. that was silly of me, after all, it is your flat.”
Oliver smiled and gestured for Susan to lead the way. He followed her into the room, and after helping himself to a generous portion of whisky, walked over to the fire.
Shortly after, Edward, wrapped in a huge ruby-coloured dressing gown and wiping soap from his ear strode into the room. He was of similar age to Oliver, late twenties, well built, if slightly podgy, with dark auburn hair and a full moustache. Susan looked up and smiled to herself, she could see now where he had picked up some of his new mannerisms.
“Thought I could hear voices. I see you two have met, no need for introductions then.”
As he was speaking, Edward walked to the side table and grabbed a whisky decanter by the neck. He glanced at Oliver who nodded. A long finger snaked into one of the tumblers followed by the distinctive clink of crystal. He swept the decanter off the table and carried it to where Oliver was sitting. After pouring the whisky, he sank into a lounge chair and sipped from his glass, enjoying the warm glow as it spread through his body.
Suddenly he sat up exclaiming, “Sorry sis, would you like something to drink?”
“Kind of you to remember, but no thank you, and yes, Oliver has already inquired.”
Edward nodded and sank back into his lounge chair.
They chatted, tentatively at first, getting to know one another. Edward had not seen Susan for two years and was unsure how his sister would take his new relationship. Oliver was intrigued by Susan. An attractive, self-assured young lady of high intelligence with a degree was a rare find. And, as fate would have it, she was also a trained and experienced teacher. He suggested a picnic at Oxford, which was met with ready acquiescence. Arrangements were made for the following Sunday.
“I’ll see if the Rolls is available,” mused Oliver. “Must ring father, haven’t spoken to him in ages.”
Oliver, Sir Oliver Marchmaine, was an unaffected young man of intense intelligence who saw life as a great adventure to be lived to the full. He was also unyieldingly loyal to his country, England, which is why he had joined Military Intelligence on leaving Oxford.
It was 1910 and Europe was stirring. It was a time full of interest, intrigue and danger. The European chessboard was becoming increasingly complex, the moves more subtle. A time when an unexpected move or feint could have profound consequences.
Regaining her balance, the woman’s eyes were drawn, hesitantly at first, resisting back to Beit-al-Ajaib. She wondered if it was still the same. Still the same centre of power and intrigue that had been so much a part of her life all those years before; that had defined her life.
She remembered those first few moments, remembered standing in the foyer of the palace, .………… remembered the breathtakingly beautiful Persian tapestry ........
The sea breeze stirred her clothes. She smiled a little sadly, and in her mind the tapestry gently swayed. Two small apparitions ran giggling up the stairs: two small exquisitely rich burkas disappearing along the first floor landing. Childish squeals of mischief and joy left in the air.......
“Move to seaward, you accused of Allah! Move!”
Her thoughts were clawed back to the dhow, the captain crashing the tiller over to avoid another boat on the crowded harbour. The woman instinctively ducked her head to avoid the heavy boom as it swung over her, the rusty cockerels squawked their raucous indignation, their heads straining through the latticework, relentless.
The collision avoided, the dhow continued on its way. The cacophony dying down to the occasional command by the captain or the cry of a seagull.
The woman's thoughts returned to Beit-al-Ajaib
…………. laughing and giggling, girls of seven or eight. A door on the first floor slammed and all sounds of them disappeared. Silence. The woman smiled. She could see herself, a young woman, dressed plainly, unselfconsciously, her sexuality tantalisingly just out of reach, hidden beneath the thin veil of her clothing. She remembered standing alone in the foyer, looking around, perplexed. Asim came through a door to the left of the tapestry.
“Salaam.”
The woman started and looked around. Then, realising, was cold again. Alone again. Alone, rocking to and fro to the rythm of the sea. Alone, beside a rough-hewn coffin.
Now Available on Amazon's Kindle $4.99 - Over 400 Pages
Graeme has been using ChinesePod since 2007
"I highly recommend ChinesePod, I haven't found any Online teaching programmes that come close."
