Follow the Debate - China Real Estate December 2010
China Real Estate
The expansion of these gigantic cities has been fast, disruptive and unprecedented in world history. It has also been accompanied by rapid price increases. But they have occurred primarily in the first-tier cities. Markets cannot easily price what they have never witnessed before.
;)
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China Daily 29/12/2010
Land boom may boost prices
Local govt reliance on property market could prove harmful
SHANGHAI - Local governments' excessive reliance on land-sale revenues will not only catapult already-prohibitive house prices to new highs, but also dissuade industrial entrepreneurs from expanding production, and lead them to speculate on property to make fast money, said experts.
At a recent land auction, a plot in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, was sold for 3.7 billion yuan ($559 million), or 37,000 yuan a square meter (sq m) by gross floor area, becoming one of the most expensive plots of land in the country.
However, in the eyes of Zhou Dewen, president of the Wenzhou Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises Development Association, it is an anomaly.
"The land-bidding spree is a prelude to sidelined industrial production, but the bubble will burst in the housing market," Zhou said.
According to him, there is growing concern that more manufacturers will move from their businesses to join the housing stockpile, which provides higher and quicker returns. "This is very dangerous, because the sustained development of the national economy cannot be dependent on the housing boom and speculation, or we will have to pay a high cost, just like our neighbor Japan did," he noted.
The Wall Street Journal 29/12/2010
Rising property prices and a torrid pace of lending are signals of an inflationary bubble.
Last week I sold an apartment in Beijing for more than 2.5 times what I paid for it five years and three months ago. When I asked the buyer why he was optimistic about real estate, he explained that land was limited in Chinese cities and government policies would keep the market going up.
So far that argument has proven right. Understanding government policy has long been the key to making money in China's property and stock markets. The atmosphere at the Beijing tax and land bureaus brought to mind California during the gold rush.
Kaixin OpEd – An informed article, which gives Kaixin some pause for thought.
Kaixin is thinking about purchasing a unit in China. It has been recommended to us to wait until some time next year. The government policies to cool the market must kick in some time and there will be distressed sales to cherry-pick from.
However, this will not be wholesale rout. Our advice that is that it will be an adjustment, which is seen as good.
As the article points out, the gearing in China is low. Distressed sales will not be common as in the over-geared west during the GFC.
Still, the dragon is growing up and must be getting harder to wrestle.
China Daily 28/12/2010
Stabilizing prices to be put in prominent position
BEIJING -- The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, reaffirmed Monday that it would give more prominence to stabilizing prices, and implementing a prudent monetary policy during the next year.
Further, China will make its monetary policies more targeted, flexible, and effective, employing multiple monetary tools to control liquidity and guide the credit growth back to a normal level, said an online statement summarizing a meeting of the PBOC's monetary policy committee.The statement came one day after the 25-basis-point interest rate hikes went into effect on Sunday.
More credit should be channeled into the real economy, especially into programs concerning agriculture, the countryside, farmers, and medium-sized and small enterprises, to help promote the strategic and economic restructuring, the statement said.
Those attending the meeting also agreed to further improve the yuan exchange rate formative mechanism, and to keep the yuan exchange rate "basically stable at a reasonable level."
An upward momentum in China's economy has been further consolidated, but the country also faces tough tasks in controlling credit and liquidity growth as well as warding off financial risks.
China Daily 27/12/2010
China vows to tame housing prices
BEIJING - Policies launched this year to tighten the rise in housing prices have not been well implemented, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday, though the central government will continue its efforts to maintain prices at a reasonable level.
He made the remarks while taking questions from netizens while visiting China National Radio, according to a report on the station's website.
"I made a promise to the Chinese people last year that I would try to keep housing prices at a reasonable level during my tenure, and I won't shrink from the goal," Wen said.
The government will work to increase the supply of affordable housing and will strictly control speculation in the property market next year, he said.
See Kaixin's - CHINA REAL ESTATE
China Daily 24/12/2010
China boosts land supply in 2010
China increased land supply this year and stepped up the scrutiny of real estate investments by foreign companies as it rolls out more measures to contain 18 months of gains in property prices, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.
China's land supply rose 48 percent to 128,200 hectares in the first 11 months, while sites for residential developments surged 51 percent, the Land and Resources Ministry said in a statement.
The Commerce Ministry ordered local authorities to halt the approval of some foreign property investments to curb speculative buying, it said in a Nov 22 statement.
Home prices in 70 Chinese cities climbed 7.7 percent in November from a year earlier, even after the government raised borrowing costs for the first time in three years, suspended mortgages for third-home purchases and pledged to introduce a property tax, the report said, adding that sales volume also jumped 15 percent. "The pace for land acquisitions in the private sector will slow next year," the report cited Johnson Hu, a Shanghai-based property analyst at UOB Kay Hian Investment Co. "The government is tightening lending on one hand, but on the other, it's launching new land supplies," Hu said.
Real estate should not be pillar industry
Real estate should be a fundamental, but not a pillar, industry in China, the Shanghai Securities News reported Wednesday, citing Yun Xiaosu, vice minister of the Ministry of Land and Resources.
Chinese government has rolled out a series of measures to curb skyrocketing housing prices since April. China’s real estate prices in 70 major cities rose at a slower pace since April. However, 70 percent of Chinese residents believe home prices are too high, according to a report released by the People’s Bank of China.
China tougher on foreign property investment
BEIJING - China is tightening regulation on foreign investment in the real estate sector to crack down on speculation, according to a statement from the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) on Thursday.
The ministry urges local authorities to increase checks and supervision on property investment that involved foreign investors and strengthen risk controls on the sector, said the statement posted on the MOC website.According to the statement, foreign-funded developers are not allowed to make profits through buying and reselling real estate projects, which will be strictly monitored by the MOC along with the Ministry of Land and Resources and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
The ministry also required local authorities to tighten scrutiny over foreign-funded investment companies and not to allow those companies to enter the real estate businesses, while closely examining the exact amount of foreign funds used in new real estate projects.
China's top banker sees rate rises: Xinhua
SHANGHAI/BEIJING- China Construction Bank Corp (CCB) Chairman Guo Shuqing said he expects the government to raise interest rates and lift bank required reserve ratios (RRR) further next year.
Caixin Online 24/12/2010
Developers Revive Penchant for Land
During the first half of December, the top ten Chinese developers spent 14.8 billion yuan on land purchases, say analysts
(Beijing) -- As cities have moved to increase land supply toward the year's end, property developers across China have gone on a multi-billion yuan buying spree.
According to Centaline Property Agency Ltd, during the first half of December, the top ten Chinese developers spent 14.8 billion yuan on land purchases, exceeding 70 percent of the total expenditures for the past eleven months.
The Wall Street Journal 23/12/2010
Hong Kong's Li Plans Yuan REIT
HONG KONG—Billionaire Li Ka-shing is planning what could be the first yuan-denominated initial public offering in Hong Kong, according to people familiar with the matter, but it still needs to pass mainland regulatory approval.
Mr. Li, whose global business empire encompasses ports, property, energy and infrastructure, has hired Citic Securities International Co. to prepare the listing of a real-estate investment trust backed by a major property in Beijing, two people familiar with the deal said. HSBC Holdings PLC is also advising, these people said. A third bank could join the team, one of the people said.
Under the proposal being ...
China Daily 23/12/2010
Citic to build Beijing's tallest building
China's State-owned Citic Group defeated its competitor Hainan Airlines in the bidding battle for the Z15 plot in center business district (CBD) area in Beijing, according to Beijing Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources, Qianlong.com reported Wednesday.
The block Z15 is the largest planning area of the six plots seeking public biddings in CBD. According to the plans, Beijing's tallest building will occupy the plot at a height of 500 meters, the website reported.
Caixin Online 23/12/2010
New "Land King" Crowned in Beijing
CITIC Group's 6.3 billion yuan property buy in Beijing's Central Business District still fell short of market expectations
(Beijing) - CITIC Group set a new record in this year's Beijing property market deals after the recent purchase of a plot of land for 6.3 billion yuan in the city's Central Business District.
The Ultimate "Last Nail" of Beijing
Clenched in resistance to the demolition of their homes, Zhang Changfu and his younger brother have held on to a group of drooping houses in the center of Beijing. Surrounded by high-rise buildings in Chaoyang District, the homes are known in China as a "last nail" household. In 2003, Zhang refused a demolition compensation agreement with UHN International Village, an apartment developer. The developer offered 450,000 yuan to each of Zhang's brothers for their home. Over the past seven years, Zhang's actions have attracted much media attention. Some netizens have nicknamed him as the ultimate "last nail" of Beijing. Zhang said he and his family are willing to move away, but only if they reach fair compensation from the real estate developer, which he has said would be around 6 million yuan for the 150 square meter plot.
Zhang's house is located in the Taiyang Gong area in Chaoyang District, between the North 2nd Ring Road and North 3rd Ring Road. Housing prices in that area have skyrocketed in recent years.
The Wall Street Journal 22/12/2010
Hong Kong's Cooling Measures Threaten Big Projects
HONG KONG—Signs are mounting that government measures aimed at taking the speculative heat out of Hong Kong's residential-property market are pushing some buyers to the sidelines, hitting sales of some big new projects.
China Daily 21/12/2010
Urbanization presents huge challenge for policymakers
BEIJING - China's urbanization rate, showing the number of people leaving the countryside to live in cities and towns, stood at 33.28 percent in 2008, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from 2007.
That's according to the latest findings of the China International Urbanization Development Strategy Research Committee (CIUDSRC).
Caixin Online 21/12/2010
China to Curb Land Auction Prices
The ministry ordered the reporting of auction deals with final prices 50 percent higher than the cost of land
(Beijing) - China's Ministry of Land and Resources pledged on December 19 to crack down on land-hoarding and rein in the soaring land prices in an effort to cool the housing market.
New Lending Ceiling Set at 7.5 Tln Yuan for 2011
Analysts say total new lending for this year will be around 8 trillion yuan
(Beijing) – The growth in China's broadest measure of money supply,M2, was set at 16 percent in 2011 during the recently-concluded Central Economic Work Conference, according to an informed source.
Rural Incomes Grow Faster than Urban Incomes
Despite the higher growth rate, incomes in rural areas remain far behind those in urban areas
(Beijing) – Rural incomes grew faster than incomes in urban areas in 2010, according to a report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Kaixin OpEd - It is this income growth and the general economic growth in rural China + Real Estate Prices.
China Daily 20/12/2010
Deciding China's next 10 years - VIDEO
Inflation, unaffordable housing, and rising prices – what will decide China's next 10 years? That's what a dozen top Chinese business leaders discussed on Dec 15 in Beijing.
China Daily reporter Feng Xin takes you to find out what some of the most powerful Chinese bussiness men would say.
Property price rise rate to slow in 2011
BEIJING - The price of property in China will continue to rise in 2011, but the rate of growth will slow down.
A leading real estate research institute said on Friday that prices will increase by 8 to 9 percent next year, but an improved demand-and-supply relationship, as well as the government's continuing tightening measures, will help to slow the rate of price growth.
"We expect the area sold next year will increase by 8 to 10 percent, and floor space will rise 16 to 24 percent," said Huang Yu, vice-president of the China Index Academy, a Beijing-based property research institute.
"Meanwhile, land prices in areas close to high-speed railways and subways will pick up."
Kaixin OpEd - Choosing the right investment property is the same the world over: Location, Location. Location.
China eyes to curb excessive growth in land price
BEIJING - China's land regulators urged local land authorities late Sunday to take concrete measures against excessive growth in the country's land prices in some Chinese cities and crack down on illegal behavior, such as land hoarding, to ensure the implementation of the government's cooling measures on the property market.
The Wall Street Journal 17/12/2010
China Cracks Down on Shanghai Lending
BEIJING—Shanghai regulators ordered banks in Shanghai, China's financial center, to halt loans for fixed-asset investments—likely affecting construction and property development—for the rest of the year, in a fresh move to contain the flood of credit that has helped accelerate inflation.
Taiwan Wrestles With Burgeoning Housing Bubble
Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong aren’t the only cities in the greater China region contending with politically problematic property bubbles. Housing prices are becoming a headache for authorities in Taipei, as well.
China Daily 16/12/2010
Land battles most dire rural issue: Report
BEIJING - Land disputes have emerged as rural China's most volatile social problem, as forced acquisitions have been generating growing social unrest, China's top think tank said in its annual report on Wednesday.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said in its 2011 Blue Book of China's Society that 73 percent of the petitions and complaints farmers filed are related to land.
BEIJING - Land disputes have emerged as rural China's most volatile social problem, as forced acquisitions have been generating growing social unrest, China's top think tank said in its annual report on Wednesday.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said in its 2011 Blue Book of China's Society that 73 percent of the petitions and complaints farmers filed are related to land.
See Kaixin's - INSIGHTS INTO CHINA'S SOCIETY & CULTURE
Demolition rules seek public input
New draft reflects resolve to protect people's rights in relocation cases
BEIJING - Local governments will not be allowed to use their administrative rights to forcibly demolish citizens' properties, and forced home demolitions must go through the courts, according to draft proposals released on Wednesday to gauge public opinion.The proposals, in an updated draft revision to the urban home demolition regulations, were made available for public response until Dec 30. They also prohibit any organization or individual from using violence, threats or other illegal acts, such as cutting off water, electricity and transport access, to force relocations.
The long-awaited new draft, which experts said enhances legal procedures, replaces the first draft, which resulted in 65,601 responses from Jan 29 to March 3.
"It's the first time for the State Council Legislative Affairs Office to publish a second draft of regulations for a second round of soliciting public opinion," Peking University law professor Shen Kui told China Daily.
"It shows the central government's caution in making such a new rule and its determination to curb the violation of people's rights amid a recent string of violent relocation cases."
Caixin Online 16/12/2010
FDI Growth in Real Estate Jumps
In the first 11 months of this year, foreign investment accounted for US$ 20.1 billion of total real estate investment in China
(Beijing) - Foreign direct investment in China's real estate sector grew by 48 percent in the January to November period from a year earlier, much higher than the growth rate for total FDI inflows to China.
Experts Say Hot Money Should not Deter Interest Rate Hike
Market analysts say that the People's Bank of China has fewer options to tackle inflation after the reserve requirement ratio has already been raised to 18.5 percent
(Beijing) - China's central bank has raised the reserve requirement ratio six times this year but fallen short of raising interest rates for fear of "hot money" inflows and a slowdown in exports.
The Wall Street Journal 15/12/2010
Chinese Property Investors Go Shopping in Japan
TOKYO—As property prices in Japan head down for the 19th consecutive year, a new breed of investor has taken up some space long dominated by Western institutions.
Flush with cash and unscathed by the credit crisis, Hong Kong Chinese, Singaporeans, Malaysians and mainland Chinese investors have stepped up their purchases of Japanese real estate over the past year. Compared with the astronomical prices in Hong Kong, Singapore and parts of China, valuations are lower—and returns are less volatile.
Caixin Online 14/12/2010
Chongqing Mulls Tax on Luxury Housing
Media outlets have reported that the pilot program for taxes on luxury property will be launched in 2011 in Shanghai and Chongqing
(Beijing) - The municipal government of Chongqing is set to implement property taxes on luxury homes as part of a pilot program for a nationwide launch of the tax.
The Wall Street Journal 11/12/2010
China Raises Reserve Requirements in Latest Cooling Effort
BEIJING—China raised banks' reserve requirements for the third time in a month Friday, taking another step to the cool its economy after new data showed a sharp increase in exports and a continued pickup in the property market.
China Daily 10/12/2010
World's 3rd tallest building starts construction in China
A groundbreaking ceremony was held for what will be the third highest building in the world – Wuhan Greenland Center – in Wuhan city of Central China's Hubei province Wednesday, chinanews.com.cn reported.
Scheduled to be completed in 2014, the multifunctional skyscraper, complete with a five-star hotel, Grade-A offices, luxury apartments and upscale retail outlets, will only be dwarfed by the 800-meter Burj Dubai Tower and 632-meter Shanghai Center Tower.
The project, with a gross floor area of three million square meters, is located in the Bingjiang business district in the city.
The investment is estimated to exceed 30 billion yuan ($4.5 billion), said the developer, Shanghai-based Greenland Group.
A computer generated image shows how the world's 3rd tallest building in Central China's Wuhan city will look when completed in 2014.
China Daily 9/12/2010
Report says residential housing overpriced
BEIJING - A report by a leading think tank in China showed Wednesday that residential housing in the country's large and medium-sized cities is overpriced and in some cities are severely overpriced.
Ordinary commercial residential housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities are, on average, about 29.5 percent overpriced, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said in its annual report on China's housing conditions.
Among the 35 cities, five see homes more than 50 percent overcharged, and 11 see houses 30 percent to 50 percent overpriced, said the CASS.
However, the projections might be exaggerated or underestimated due to the accuracy of the statistics provided by some cities, said the CASS.
The CASS said, in another report Tuesday, that China's housing price was expected to rise by 15 percent in 2010, down from 25 percent in 2009, but warned of "retaliatory price rebound" in 2011 if government measures aimed at cooling the market were relaxed.
Chinese banks told to rein in property lending
Beijing - China's banking regulator has ordered lenders to tighten controls on their loans to property developers, its national television reported on Tuesday.
"It ordered banks to reinforce investigations before extending the loans and strengthen oversight after the loans are made," the television said.
In September, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) sent a list of property developers under the central government to lenders, it said without elaborating.
Domestic media reported earlier this week that CBRC ordered banks to confine their new loans to 16 developers on the list.
China ordered State-owned firms to divest from the real estate industry, except those with property development as their core businesses.
In addition, Beijing has issued a slew of measures in recent months to cool the red-hot property market, including raising mortgage rates and down payments.
Cities see a new spike in real estate bubble
BEIJING - China's top think tank has said that the country's real estate bubble has soared in urban areas, with the biggest gap between market price and actual value in Fuzhou, capital of East China's Fujian province.
Minister warns on urgent need for land conservation
BEIJING - The national imbalance between land supply and demand for construction will increase over the next five years as China's industrialization and urbanization maintain rapid pace, Minister of Land and Resources Xu Shaoshi said.
With a growing population, shortage of resources will be a long-term limitation for the country's economic and social development, the article said.
The per capita area of cultivated farmland in China is only 43 percent of the world average. Per capita fresh water and forestland are 25 percent and 14 percent of the world average, official figures showed.
Only about 20 percent of the country's total land area is suitable for living.
The country faces the major challenge of feeding one-fifth of the world's population on one-tenth of its arable land. And China's population is expected to peak at roughly 1.5 billion by 2030.
"The current extensive economic development has caused great consumption and wasteful use of resources," Xu said.
Caixin Online 9/12/2010
Think Tank Warns of Property Bubble
A recent Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report states that government measures instituted since April have brought down the volume of housing transactions but not investment activity
(Beijing) -- Chinese cities are facing a serious squeeze in property prices, priced on average 29.5 percent above actual value, said China's top government think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in a recent report.
Final Remnants of the U.S. Housing Bubble
Recent data on the U.S. housing market shows that prices are once again falling – and the loss of equity is likely to be a drag on already slackened consumption
The elections and the budget deficit have dominated public debate in the United States in the last couple of months. However, the more important development for the economy is likely to be the resumption of rapid price declines in the U.S. housing market.
Caixin Online 8/12/2010
Cities Search for Low-Income Home Financing
Moving millions of families into subsidized rental apartments is testing local government financial planning
(Beijing) -- Major cities across China are swinging construction cranes into place for a campaign to build subsidized apartments for more than 15 million low-income families within two years.
Governments in the cities of Beijing and Chongqing are in the forefront of the construction campaign encouraged by the central government under the recently completed 12th Five-Year Plan.
Caixin Online 7/12/2010
China Tightens Controls on SOE Property Lending
The move aims to force central SOEs whose core business is not real estate to withdraw from the red-hot sector
(Beijing) -- Chinese regulators have asked commercial banks to tighten credit on property loans to central state-owned enterprises.
China Daily 4/12/2010
China plans gradual residential property tax: MOF
China will gradually introduce a residential property tax during the next Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), a tax official from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said Thursday.
Zhou Chuanhua, director of the Tax Policy Department of the MOF, said at a meeting that a property tax reform will be carried out in the next five years and residential property tax will be introduced, without elaborating on the tax threshold. He also said property taxes could become an important and stable source of local government's revenue.
Currently, China levies property taxes only on commercial housing.
Zhou also said resources tax will be launched nationwide in the next five-year plan as the pilot program in Xinjiang autonomous region proved a success. The subjects of the resource tax will be expanded from natural gas and crude oil to coal and water. The move can also help increase local government revenue.
The Wall Street Journal 4/12/2010
Why IMF Says Hong Kong Isn’t a Property Bubble
The International Monetary Fund verdict on Hong Kong property: It’s not a bubble…yet.
Last month, in its annual assessment of Hong Kong’s economy, the IMF said the government is rightly worried about property prices and on the right track in restricting mortgages and imposing other cooling measures. But The IMF’s conclusion was that for now, prices are sustainable–though they bear watching. Last month, in its annual assessment of Hong Kong’s economy, the IMF said the government is rightly worried about property prices and on the right track in restricting mortgages and imposing other cooling measures. But The IMF’s conclusion was that for now, prices are sustainable–though they bear watching.
Kaixin OpEd – Kaixin has been saying for some time that there is no ‘western’ style real estate bubble in China. Honk Kong is now being driven by investment from the Chinese mainland, so, logically, the rise in real estate prices is sustainable.
Real estate prices in China are backed by substantial deposits (in many cases properties are purchased for cash), prudent lending practices and secure incomes.
China is in the first 30 years of its re-emergence. It is just he beginning of its wealth transformation.
The Chinese people love to own real estate. As the wealth of China increases then the demand for real estate will increase.
This will be both a domestic trend and an international trend.
Global Times 4/12/2010
Thinking of buying a house in China? It's a trap!
I was sitting at home enjoying a nice cup of coffee when my mother-in-law asked the same question that I hear all too often, "When are you going to buy a house in China?"
It's considered normal to own a property in China before you get married, so not owning one tends to raise a few eyebrows.
I've never understood this mad desire to buy a house in China at the moment when all the signs are shouting "don't."
It's rare to find anyone who won't acknowledge that China's real estate is in the middle of the biggest property bubble ever created, but this doesn't stop them recommending buying?a property.
The reason given is invariably that the government won't allow the bubble to burst, but that tends to imply that governments always get?their policies?right.
Kaixin OpEd – Kaixin does not particularly agree with this writer’s view. Kaixin believes the fundamentals underpinning China’s real estate are sound.
The ‘west’ tends to compare China’s growth in real estate prices to what happened in the ‘west’ when Greenspan set off the great ponzi scheme that turned America’s, then the world’s, real estate into tulips.
That has not happened in China.
The Wall Street Journal 3/12/2010
New Subway Lines to Push up Beijing Housing Prices
Construction of five Beijing subway lines began between late 2008 and early 2009 – Since then, prices for homes along the lines have increased by up to 40 percent
(Beijing) -- Five new subway lines in Beijing, scheduled to be opened by the end of the year, are expected to push up nearby housing prices by up to 15 percent.
China Daily 2/12/2010
Overseas money floods Chinese property market
BEIJING - An increasing number of foreign institutional investors are flooding into China's property market via taking part in the development stage, lured by the sector's high investment returns and the country's solid economic fundamentals.
House prices increase 0.8% in November
Second monthly rise in a row comes despite interest rate hike
SHANGHAI - China's home prices rose 0.8 percent in November, gaining for a second month even as the central bank raised interest rate for the first time since 2007, said SouFun Holdings Ltd, the nation's biggest real estate website owner.
Residential prices in 86 cities rose from October, based on 100 locations tracked by SouFun, with average home values nationwide climbing to 8,487 yuan ($1,273) a square meter. The gain followed a 0.7 percent increase in October's home prices from September, SouFun said.
China this year suspended mortgages for third-home purchases and pledged to speed up trials of property taxes to restrain foreign capital and cool real estate prices. The central bank raised interest rates in October and increased the reserve-ratio requirements for banks twice last month.
"It showed that home prices are stabilizing amid the government's tightening," said Huang Yu, a Beijing-based researcher at SouFun.
"The home-price gains were mild compared with the high inflation rate as other products are rising rapidly."
China Daily 1/12/2010
Property market shows signs of recovery
China's property market is showing signs of recovery after the central government implemented a series of measures in late September to constrain soaring prices. Industry insiders said that the market is steady now and might see an upswing after the Lunar New Year.
Caixin Online 1/12/2010
Industrial Bank Economist Says Interest Rate Hike Ahead
Analysts expect another interest rate hike as inflation may continue to go up
(Beijing) -- The central bank may raise interest rates for the second time this year given massive new credit figures and the possible highest-ever consumer inflation in November, said an Industrial Bank economist.
China Themes
Yuan Revaluation & Internationalisation
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Set in Zanzibar in 1910, it is the story of two people from different worlds falling in love. Susan immerses herself in Zanzibar. Asim falls in love with this woman from the nation that killed his wife. Susan is a spy. Asim is the chief advisor to the Sultan of Zanzibar. Germany and France are holding secret negotiations to form a Pan European alliance, which would isolate Britain and destroy her power. Susan and Asim are caught up in all this and their love is finally dashed on the cold, hard reality of international high politics.
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Chapter One
Zanzibar
'A maharaja’s ruby cast on a Persian carpet by the blackest of hands'
Their souls danced, honouring his promise.
The ancient dhow stirred in the soft morning breeze. Like a sleepy lion, it began to move through the water, snuffling about the other boats on the harbour; some scurrying, some at anchor, some darting before a brief gust of wind. The lateen sails a bustling panorama of blood-red and sun-bleached white.
Aft, the woman's eyes searched the skyline, drinking in the architecture of Stone Town, the heart of Zanzibar; its jagged, cluttered silhouette so familiar, so much a part of her soul.
Abruptly, her eyes ceased their restless searching, jagged by an invisible hook, transfixed by the grand buildings on the northern shore, Beit-al-Ajaib, the House of Wonders, Palace to the great Sultan of Zanzibar. The distinctive architecture captured in the tropical light: coconut white outlined by contrasting shadow plays of pepper black.
A smile, ever so slight, started to play on the edge of her mouth then disappeared. A memory that should have been fond instantly turned to sharp unbearable pain. Her eyes hardened and moved on.
Without warning the captain threw the rudder over. Stumbling, the woman barked her shin on a wooden box, a rough-hewn coffin. She recoiled, knocking over an untidy stack of cane baskets. Imprisoned in the baskets, rusty cockerels, their scruffy heads straining through the latticework, snapped at her, cried out to her; their raucous din overwhelming her, drowning her.
Dimly, through the fog of noise, the strident swearing of the sailors in Kiswahili seeped into her conscious. Understanding, she smiled mirthlessly.
The coffin had been carelessly stowed, a chore, rather than a labour of respect or love.
London 1910
“Hello, who are you? I am Oliver, is Edward at home?”
The words were spoken by a tall, impeccably dressed young man as he rushed into Edward’s flat shaking off surplus water and calling for whisky while shoving his umbrella into a stand. It was a blustery, grey, bitterly cold February afternoon in the heart of London. He brushed a curl of soft auburn hair from his forehead and smiled charmingly.
Susan laughed, her hazel eyes dancing with the exhilaration of the new. “Yes, he is having a bath. I think he is trying to get warm. I’m Susan, Susan Carey, his sister.”
“Ahhh yes, from Australia. How do you do?” said Sir Oliver, smiling broadly and offering his hand. He noticed the laughter in her eyes, and the depth, particularly the depth, intensified by jade flecks that made them striking and alluring. “So, you have arrived, good trip I trust.”
“I am very well thank you, and yes, it was a good trip,” replied Susan.
He laughed and glanced at the sitting room, “whisky?”
“Oh, I’m sorry, please come in…….. that was silly of me, after all, it is your flat.”
Oliver smiled and gestured for Susan to lead the way. He followed her into the room, and after helping himself to a generous portion of whisky, walked over to the fire.
Shortly after, Edward, wrapped in a huge ruby-coloured dressing gown and wiping soap from his ear strode into the room. He was of similar age to Oliver, late twenties, well built, if slightly podgy, with dark auburn hair and a full moustache. Susan looked up and smiled to herself, she could see now where he had picked up some of his new mannerisms.
“Thought I could hear voices. I see you two have met, no need for introductions then.”
As he was speaking, Edward walked to the side table and grabbed a whisky decanter by the neck. He glanced at Oliver who nodded. A long finger snaked into one of the tumblers followed by the distinctive clink of crystal. He swept the decanter off the table and carried it to where Oliver was sitting. After pouring the whisky, he sank into a lounge chair and sipped from his glass, enjoying the warm glow as it spread through his body.
Suddenly he sat up exclaiming, “Sorry sis, would you like something to drink?”
“Kind of you to remember, but no thank you, and yes, Oliver has already inquired.”
Edward nodded and sank back into his lounge chair.
They chatted, tentatively at first, getting to know one another. Edward had not seen Susan for two years and was unsure how his sister would take his new relationship. Oliver was intrigued by Susan. An attractive, self-assured young lady of high intelligence with a degree was a rare find. And, as fate would have it, she was also a trained and experienced teacher. He suggested a picnic at Oxford, which was met with ready acquiescence. Arrangements were made for the following Sunday.
“I’ll see if the Rolls is available,” mused Oliver. “Must ring father, haven’t spoken to him in ages.”
Oliver, Sir Oliver Marchmaine, was an unaffected young man of intense intelligence who saw life as a great adventure to be lived to the full. He was also unyieldingly loyal to his country, England, which is why he had joined Military Intelligence on leaving Oxford.
It was 1910 and Europe was stirring. It was a time full of interest, intrigue and danger. The European chessboard was becoming increasingly complex, the moves more subtle. A time when an unexpected move or feint could have profound consequences.
Regaining her balance, the woman’s eyes were drawn, hesitantly at first, resisting back to Beit-al-Ajaib. She wondered if it was still the same. Still the same centre of power and intrigue that had been so much a part of her life all those years before; that had defined her life.
She remembered those first few moments, remembered standing in the foyer of the palace, .………… remembered the breathtakingly beautiful Persian tapestry ........
The sea breeze stirred her clothes. She smiled a little sadly, and in her mind the tapestry gently swayed. Two small apparitions ran giggling up the stairs: two small exquisitely rich burkas disappearing along the first floor landing. Childish squeals of mischief and joy left in the air.......
“Move to seaward, you accused of Allah! Move!”
Her thoughts were clawed back to the dhow, the captain crashing the tiller over to avoid another boat on the crowded harbour. The woman instinctively ducked her head to avoid the heavy boom as it swung over her, the rusty cockerels squawked their raucous indignation, their heads straining through the latticework, relentless.
The collision avoided, the dhow continued on its way. The cacophony dying down to the occasional command by the captain or the cry of a seagull.
The woman's thoughts returned to Beit-al-Ajaib
…………. laughing and giggling, girls of seven or eight. A door on the first floor slammed and all sounds of them disappeared. Silence. The woman smiled. She could see herself, a young woman, dressed plainly, unselfconsciously, her sexuality tantalisingly just out of reach, hidden beneath the thin veil of her clothing. She remembered standing alone in the foyer, looking around, perplexed. Asim came through a door to the left of the tapestry.
“Salaam.”
The woman started and looked around. Then, realising, was cold again. Alone again. Alone, rocking to and fro to the rythm of the sea. Alone, beside a rough-hewn coffin.
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