Follow the Debate - Yuan Revaluation and Internationalisation News Archive February 2010

Follow the Debate

Yuan Revaluation & Internationalisation

You can scan the Articles over time and see it evolve and change

Graeme has been using ChinesePod since 2007

"I highly recommend ChinesePod, I haven't found any Online teaching programmes that come close."

The Australian   26/2/2010

China defends value of the yuan

CHINA has defended the value of the yuan, rejecting accusations that it was responsible for global trade imbalances.

The commerce ministry said maintaining a stable currency was a "top priority'' and was necessary for the survival of Chinese companies and supporting jobs growth in the world's third-largest economy.

China Daily   26/2/2010

Pressure on yuan rise 'not justified

Trade surplus continues to fall, so stable currency necessary.

China's trade surplus has shrunk significantly in recent months, so calls by other countries to let the renminbi appreciate are not justified, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday.

The surplus will continue to diminish in the next few months, the ministry said; and therefore, growing pressure from the United States for China to revalue its currency is becoming "more and more groundless".

"The trade surplus will continue to ease this year, and we cannot rule out the possibility of China recording a trade deficit within the next few months" as the Chinese government "focuses on rolling out measures to stimulate imports this year", said ministry spokesperson Yao Jian.

The Wall Street Journal       China RealTime Report   24/2/2010

A Pat on the Back for China on Treasurys, Yuan

Trying to use Chinese state media to gauge the Chinese government’s thinking on currency policy or China’s holdings of U.S. Treasurys can be tricky. And in such tea-leaves reading, some tea leaves are clearly more significant than others.

For all its high-flying rhetoric, Tuesday’s article in a newspaper backed by the National Bureau of Statistics may not be one of those. The article–published in the lead spot on the paper’s front page–lauded moves by China to cut its U.S. government debt holdings and called on the country to “unswervingly” stand fast on the issue of the yuan exchange rate.

The Age   22/2/2010

China tightens bank lending rules

Banking regulators in China have ordered institutions to tighten controls on risk and carefully scrutinise borrowers' ability to pay their debts in a new step to rein in lending.

The government's order comes as Beijing tries to prevent excessive lending that it says could lead to financial problems while ensuring adequate credit to keep the economic recovery on track.

Kaixin – Would the GFC have occurred if governments in the ‘west’  have had the courage and wisdom to order ‘institutions carefully scrutinise borrowers’ ability to pay their debts’

The Australian   18/2/2010

US expected to press China over yuan

THE mounting political tension between US and China is poised to take on a more pronounced economic component - with Washington, in coming months, expected to press China over what officials see as an undervalued yuan.

But for US officials, China's exchange rate is emerging as a top concern.

China Daily   18/2/2010

RMB is not a cure-all for US economy: IMF

WASHINGTON: An appreciation of the Chinese yuan will help US economic growth but it will not solve problems in its own economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist said Monday.

A 20 percent appreciation of the yuan, formally known as renminbi or RMB, along with a similar currency appreciation by other emerging Asian economic entities may lead to an increase of about 1 percent of the US gross domestic product, Olivier Blanchard said, basing the prediction on an IMF model.

"This would be good news for US growth but this is clearly not enough by itself to sustain growth in the United States," the IMF chief economist told Xinhua News Agency.

The Wall Street Journal    China RealTime Report   17/2/2010

An Alternative Route to Appreciation for China’s Yuan

With China’s economy surging and flirting with a property bubble, most analysts are prescribing the same remedy: a stronger Chinese currency that would help contain inflation.

A few economists are now turning that argument on its head, and proposing that China allow inflation to do the work of currency appreciation. Rather than adjusting the currency upward to make Chinese goods more expensive abroad, authorities should just allow rising wages and other costs to make Chinese goods more expensive, they say. To put it in the language of economists, they think China can get the needed adjustment in the real exchange rate without actually moving the nominal exchange rate.

The Wall Street Journal   China RealTime Report   16/2/2010

Take Two For a One-Off Revaluation?

Almost four years ago China’s Premier Wen Jiabao said the yuan would never again undergo a one-off revaluation.

Now, faced with rising inflation and the need to rein in fast-paced economic growth, might the unimaginable be on the cards again?

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill thinks he sees it coming. He told Bloomberg News Friday that he thinks Beijing may be ready to allow the yuan to rise by as much as 5% in a one-time revaluation.

Sydney Morning Herald   15/2/2010

Something brewing on yuan: Goldman economist

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill says China may be poised to let its currency strengthen as much as 5 per cent to slow the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The New York Times   13/2/2010

China Moves to Curb Inflation by Tightening Credit

HONG KONG — For the second time in less than five weeks, China’s central bank has moved to limit lending to consumers and businesses by ordering big commercial banks to park a larger share of their deposits at the central bank.

China has been trying to limit investment inflows for years because that makes the flows make it even harder for China to hold down the value of the renminbi against the dollar. If the renminbi appreciates, that would make Chinese exports more expensive in foreign markets, potentially leading to job losses at export factories.

China Daily   11/2/2010

New trade figures could ease yuan pressure

Growing domestic consumption and the international balance of payment have led to a rise in the country's latest imports and a drop in trade surplus, which analysts say will likely ease pressure on yuan appreciation.

Imports in January skyrocketed by 85.5 percent from a year earlier, when companies were left idle for the weeklong Spring Festival holiday, customs figures showed.

The Wall Street Journal – China RealTime Report   10/2/2010

Fed’s Yellen: U.S. Rates Too Hot for China

A top Federal Reserve official said Monday U.S. monetary policy is too hot for China and Hong Kong and explained any trouble those nations ultimately face because of this situation arises from their own foreign exchange policies.

The central banker said that if China wants to prevent U.S. policies from overheating its economy and driving inflation, it will have to do something about its foreign exchange policy.

China Daily – Headline   6/2/2010

China won't fold on RMB

Analysts say a hasty appreciation of the yuan will be detrimental to China's economy.

China yesterday urged the United States to "objectively and rationally" consider its renminbi exchange rate while economists said the country is not likely to bow to US pressure to hasten an appreciation of the yuan.

"China does not seek a trade surplus with the US," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu yesterday

The New York Times   5/2/2010

China Rejects U.S. Complaints on Its Currency

BEIJING — A senior Chinese official said on Thursday that China would not bow to pressure from the United States to revalue its currency, which President Obama says is kept at an artificially low level to give China an unfair advantage in selling its exports.

The Wall Street Journal – China RealTime Report   5/2/2010

The Return of China’s Treasury Angst

There’s nothing like a big number to focus a debate. Forecasting a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010, U.S. President Obama’s budget has given new life to a persistent Chinese concern ever since the U.S. declared it would borrow its way out of the financial crisis: how does China insulate its massive foreign-exchange reserves against a weaker U.S. dollar?

China Daily   5/2/2010

China dismisses US criticism on trade, exchange rate

BEIJING: China on Thursday dismissed the latest US criticism on its trade surplus, saying its currency exchange rate is close to a reasonable level.

"We expect the United States to take a rational view of bilateral trade issues and to adhere to equality in negotiation.  Accusations and pressure will not bring solutions," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said at a regular briefing.

The New York Times   3/2/2010

China Urged to Run Budget Deficits, Free Yuan

BEIJING, Feb 2 (Reuters) - China needs to run a continued fiscal deficit and let its real exchange rate rise to rebalance its economy towards domestic demand and thus sustain the impressive growth of recent years, the OECD said on Tuesday.

In only its second full-length study of non-member China, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development maintained its November forecast of an acceleration in gross domestic product growth to 10.2 percent in 2010 from 8.7 percent last year.

The Australian   1/2/2010

China raises hopes on revaluation

CHINA will look at revaluing its currency when global partners begin to withdraw their stimulus packages, a top Chinese central banker said.

However, Zhu Min, deputy governor of China's central bank, said revaluation would not fix world trade imbalances. He told the World Economic Forum in Davos that China was trying to raise domestic consumption, but warned it would take time to get thrifty Chinese to spend more.

China Themes

Green China

Economic China

Yuan Revaluation & Internationalisation

China Real Estate

Graeme has been using ChinesePod since 2007

"I highly recommend ChinesePod, I haven't found any Online teaching programmes that come close."

 

Set in Zanzibar in 1910, it is the story of two people from different worlds falling in love. Susan immerses herself in Zanzibar. Asim falls in love with this woman from the nation that killed his wife. Susan is a spy. Asim is the chief advisor to the Sultan of Zanzibar. Germany and France are holding secret negotiations to form a Pan European alliance, which would isolate Britain and destroy her power. Susan and Asim are caught up in all this and their love is finally dashed on the cold, hard reality of international high politics.

 

Available on Amazon's Kindle $4.99 - Over 400 Pages

 

 Chapter One

Zanzibar

'A maharaja’s ruby cast on a Persian carpet by the blackest of hands'

 

Their souls danced, honouring his promise.

The ancient dhow stirred in the soft morning breeze. Like a sleepy lion, it began to move through the water, snuffling about the other boats on the harbour; some scurrying, some at anchor, some darting before a brief gust of wind. The lateen sails a bustling panorama of blood-red and sun-bleached white.

Aft, the woman's eyes searched the skyline, drinking in the architecture of Stone Town, the heart of Zanzibar; its jagged, cluttered silhouette so familiar, so much a part of her soul.

Abruptly, her eyes ceased their restless searching, jagged by an invisible hook, transfixed by the grand buildings on the northern shore, Beit-al-Ajaib, the House of Wonders, Palace to the great Sultan of Zanzibar. The distinctive architecture captured in the tropical light: coconut white outlined by contrasting shadow plays of pepper black.

A smile, ever so slight, started to play on the edge of her mouth then disappeared. A memory that should have been fond instantly turned to sharp unbearable pain. Her eyes hardened and moved on.

Without warning the captain threw the rudder over. Stumbling, the woman barked her shin on a wooden box, a rough-hewn coffin. She recoiled, knocking over an untidy stack of cane baskets. Imprisoned in the baskets, rusty cockerels, their scruffy heads straining through the latticework, snapped at her, cried out to her; their raucous din overwhelming her, drowning her.

Dimly, through the fog of noise, the strident swearing of the sailors in Kiswahili seeped into her conscious. Understanding, she smiled mirthlessly.

The coffin had been carelessly stowed, a chore, rather than a labour of respect or love.

London 1910

“Hello, who are you? I am Oliver, is Edward at home?”

The words were spoken by a tall, impeccably dressed young man as he rushed into Edward’s flat shaking off surplus water and calling for whisky while shoving his umbrella into a stand. It was a blustery, grey, bitterly cold February afternoon in the heart of London. He brushed a curl of soft auburn hair from his forehead and smiled charmingly.

Susan laughed, her hazel eyes dancing with the exhilaration of the new. “Yes, he is having a bath. I think he is trying to get warm. I’m Susan, Susan Carey, his sister.”

“Ahhh yes, from Australia. How do you do?” said Sir Oliver, smiling broadly and offering his hand. He noticed the laughter in her eyes, and the depth, particularly the depth, intensified by jade flecks that made them striking and alluring. “So, you have arrived, good trip I trust.”

“I am very well thank you, and yes, it was a good trip,” replied Susan.

He laughed and glanced at the sitting room, “whisky?”

“Oh, I’m sorry, please come in…….. that was silly of me, after all, it is your flat.”

Oliver smiled and gestured for Susan to lead the way. He followed her into the room, and after helping himself to a generous portion of whisky, walked over to the fire.

Shortly after, Edward, wrapped in a huge ruby-coloured dressing gown and wiping soap from his ear strode into the room. He was of similar age to Oliver, late twenties, well built, if slightly podgy, with dark auburn hair and a full moustache. Susan looked up and smiled to herself, she could see now where he had picked up some of his new mannerisms.

“Thought I could hear voices. I see you two have met, no need for introductions then.”

As he was speaking, Edward walked to the side table and grabbed a whisky decanter by the neck. He glanced at Oliver who nodded. A long finger snaked into one of the tumblers followed by the distinctive clink of crystal. He swept the decanter off the table and carried it to where Oliver was sitting. After pouring the whisky, he sank into a lounge chair and sipped from his glass, enjoying the warm glow as it spread through his body.

Suddenly he sat up exclaiming, “Sorry sis, would you like something to drink?”

“Kind of you to remember, but no thank you, and yes, Oliver has already inquired.”

Edward nodded and sank back into his lounge chair.

They chatted, tentatively at first, getting to know one another. Edward had not seen Susan for two years and was unsure how his sister would take his new relationship. Oliver was intrigued by Susan. An attractive, self-assured young lady of high intelligence with a degree was a rare find. And, as fate would have it, she was also a trained and experienced teacher. He suggested a picnic at Oxford, which was met with ready acquiescence. Arrangements were made for the following Sunday.

“I’ll see if the Rolls is available,” mused Oliver. “Must ring father, haven’t spoken to him in ages.”

Oliver, Sir Oliver Marchmaine, was an unaffected young man of intense intelligence who saw life as a great adventure to be lived to the full. He was also unyieldingly loyal to his country, England, which is why he had joined Military Intelligence on leaving Oxford.

It was 1910 and Europe was stirring. It was a time full of interest, intrigue and danger. The European chessboard was becoming increasingly complex, the moves more subtle. A time when an unexpected move or feint could have profound consequences.

Regaining her balance, the woman’s eyes were drawn, hesitantly at first, resisting back to Beit-al-Ajaib. She wondered if it was still the same. Still the same centre of power and intrigue that had been so much a part of her life all those years before; that had defined her life.

She remembered those first few moments, remembered standing in the foyer of the palace, .………… remembered the breathtakingly beautiful Persian tapestry ........

The sea breeze stirred her clothes. She smiled a little sadly, and in her mind the tapestry gently swayed. Two small apparitions ran giggling up the stairs: two small exquisitely rich burkas disappearing along the first floor landing. Childish squeals of mischief and joy left in the air.......

“Move to seaward, you accused of Allah! Move!”

Her thoughts were clawed back to the dhow, the captain crashing the tiller over to avoid another boat on the crowded harbour. The woman instinctively ducked her head to avoid the heavy boom as it swung over her, the rusty cockerels squawked their raucous indignation, their heads straining through the latticework, relentless.

The collision avoided, the dhow continued on its way. The cacophony dying down to the occasional command by the captain or the cry of a seagull.

The woman's thoughts returned to Beit-al-Ajaib

  …………. laughing and giggling, girls of seven or eight. A door on the first floor slammed and all sounds of them disappeared. Silence. The woman smiled. She could see herself, a young woman, dressed plainly, unselfconsciously, her sexuality tantalisingly just out of reach, hidden beneath the thin veil of her clothing. She remembered standing alone in the foyer, looking around, perplexed. Asim came through a door to the left of the tapestry.

“Salaam.”

The woman started and looked around. Then, realising, was cold again. Alone again. Alone, rocking to and fro to the rythm of the sea. Alone, beside a rough-hewn coffin.

 

 

Now Available on Amazon's Kindle $4.99 - Over 400 Pages

 

Graeme has been using ChinesePod since 2007

"I highly recommend ChinesePod, I haven't found any Online teaching programmes that come close."